Vietnam September 2026 Outlook – GDP Growth Nears 10%

We would like to present you our monthly Macroeconomic & Stock Market Highlights for Vietnam alongside with the monthly performance update of the TIM Vietnam Actively Managed Certificate for September 2026.

Watch our video recap of key takeaways of the Vietnam Marcroeconomic and Stock market in September 2026

Vietnam’s Economy

• In September 2026, General Secretary and President To Lam undertook a series of high-level overseas visits aimed at strengthening Vietnam’s ties with major partners and expanding economic and technology cooperation. During his September 7–12 visits to Russia and France, Vietnam reaffirmed its Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships with both countries, with discussions focused on energy, infrastructure, science and technology, defense and investment. He subsequently traveled to New York for the 81st UN General Assembly, where he held meetings with U.S. officials, business leaders and expecting the trade deal with U.S. to be reached soon. The trip concluded with a visit to Canada, in which relationship between two
  countries were upgraded bilateral relations to a Strategic Partnership, with greater cooperation targeted in trade, investment, technology, energy Vietnam’s GDP growth accelerated sharply to nearly 10% y/y in Q3, bringing 9M/2026 growth to 9.0%. The industrial sector was the main driver, expanding 12.5% y/y on strong manufacturing and construction activity. Services growth also strengthened to 9.5% y/y, supported by robust trade activity, which lifted demand for logistics and transportation, as well as continued growth in international tourist arrivals. We are reviewing the Q3 data in greater detail and will provide a more comprehensive update in our upcoming presentation.
• September PMI eased to 51.9 from 53.3 in August but remained firmly in expansionary territory. Survey respondents continued to report increases in output and new orders, albeit at a slower pace. The resilient manufacturing backdrop was also reflected in trade activity, with exports and imports rising 24.5% and 36.7% y/y, respectively, in 9M/2026. The cumulative trade deficit narrowed to $19.4bn, while September recorded a US$1.3bn surplus, the first monthly surplus of the year. This supports our expectation that the trade deficit should narrow further toward year end. FDI disbursement remained strong at $21.1bn in 9M/2026, up 12.1% y/y. On 29 September, Samsung Electro-Mechanics announced a $1.85bn expansion of its semiconductor package substrate, or FC-BGA, plant in Thai Nguyen, with completion targeted for April 2028. The investment reinforces Vietnam’s progress not only in attracting additional FDI, but also in moving further up the manufacturing value chain.
• Domestic consumption remained resilient, with retail sales rising 13.4% y/y. Vietnam welcomed 17.7mn international visitors in the first nine months, up 14.5% y/y, providing further support to services consumption. Fiscal conditions also remained supportive: state budget revenue reached 86.5% of the full-year government’s target while expenditure stood at only 59.3%, leaving a 9M surplus of around $12bn and providing room for additional policy support.
• Public investment continued to support construction activity, with state investment rising 15.1% y/y, largely driven by infrastructure projects. Authorities have also accelerated land compensation and efforts to resolve legal bottlenecks at long-delayed projects. The stronger construction cycle is increasingly visible in upstream indicators, with Hoa Phat Group, Vietnam’s largest steel producer, reporting a 37% y/y increase in sales volume in the first eight months. Meanwhile, the $1.1bn Ben Luc–Long Thanh Expressway entered full operation on 1 October, further improving connectivity between southern industrial hubs and Ho Chi Minh City.
• Inflation, however, rose to 5.1% y/y in September, mainly reflecting higher transportation, housing and food costs. Renewed tensions in the Middle East pushed global oil prices higher, leading to increases in domestic gasoline and diesel prices. Housing and construction materials rose 6.6% y/y amid strong demand from ongoing infrastructure development, while food and food services increased 4.7% as restaurants passed through higher input costs. The Prime Minister has asked Vietnam Electricity, or EVN, to refrain from raising retail electricity prices to help contain inflation. We view this as manageable given EVN’s improved financial position. While domestic demand might be strong enough to absorb some price increases, rising
  input costs could weigh on manufacturers’ margins in Q4.
• The VND further strengthened against the USD, appreciating nearly 1% year to date. High domestic interest rates have supported the attractiveness of VND assets, while robust FDI inflows and tighter oversight of the gold market provided additional support for the currency. Vietnamese banks’ increased overseas capital raising has also contributed to foreign currency inflows. Looking ahead, an improving trade balance should further strengthen Vietnam’s balance of payments and remain supportive of the VND.

Vietnam’s Stock Market

• The VN-Index declined 2.9% in September, as the FTSE Russell upgrade turned into a “sell-the-news” event while the global backdrop was also less supportive. The index extended August’s rally into early September before reversing the trend till end of the month. Persisted high local bank deposit rate, geopolitical tension and US Treasury yield put pressure on the market from both local and foreign investors. Average daily trading value remained flat vs. last month at $682m. Foreign investors turned net buyers of $102mn in the week of FTSE’s first tranche inflow, but still a net sold position for the whole month of $179mn.
• Sector performance diverged, with gains driven by Energy (+12.1%). Brent crude oil returned above US$100/bbl amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, supporting expectations for stronger Q3 earnings across oil-related names. On the other hand, weakness was concentrated in index-heavy sectors. Real Estate (−4.5%) and Financials (−3.6%), which together account for 68% of the VN-Index, gave back part of their August gains. Elevated mortgage rates raised concerns over softer property sales, while persistently high deposit rates weighed on sentiment toward banks amid expectations of narrower net interest margins. Vinhomes (VHM) and Vietcombank (VCB) were the main laggards in their respective sectors, alongside strong foreign net selling of $93mn and $16mn, respectively.
• September’s correction was sentiment driven rather than a deterioration in fundamentals. External conditions may remain volatile, but Vietnam’s domestic growth, earnings outlook and market infrastructure continue to improve. We see three drivers supporting the market ahead:
  • Strong earnings outlook. Strong economic growth is a solid backdrop for corporate earnings. EPS growth for the top 100 listed companies, excluding Vingroup related names, is projected at 20.4% in 2026 and 12.0% in 2027.
  • Attractive valuation versus regional EM peers. The VN-Index, excluding Vingroup related names, trades at over 36% discount to regional peers with a 10.0x 2026F P/E, offering an attractive entry point.
  • Foreign flow upside extends beyond the first FTSE tranche. Further FTSE related passive inflows will be phased in through September 2027. The CCP system targeted for Q1/2027 should also address a key accessibility hurdle, supporting our expectation that Vietnam could enter the MSCI Emerging Markets watchlist in June 2027. Together, these milestones should broaden Vietnam’s visibility among global institutional investors and support more durable active foreign participation.

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Please download the September 2026 Factsheet for our TIM Vietnam Actively Managed Certificate.

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