Vietnam June 2025 Macroeconomic & Stock Market: 8% GDP, 3.1% Market Return, Key Policy Moves

We would like to present you our monthly Macroeconomic & Stock Market Highlights for Vietnam alongside with the monthly performance update of the TIM Vietnam Actively Managed Certificate for June 2025.

Watch our video recap of key takeaways of the Vietnam Marcroeconomic and Stock market in June 2025

Vietnam’s Update – Economy

• 8.0% GDP growth in Q2/2025 matches our forecast. The industrials sector led the way: manufacturing rose 10.7% as exporters rushed orders ahead of tariffs deadline, and a wave of new real estate project launches plus accelerating infrastructure investment kept construction activities busy. Services climbed by 8.5%, a ten-quarters high, thanks to a 20.7% jump in international visitors and spending tied to the 50th National Reunification anniversary. Agriculture held its usual 3.9% pace. Overall, GDP expanded 7.5 % in H1/2025, marking the fastest first-half growth since 2011.
• Vietnam and U.S. reached a trade agreement. The U.S. will impose a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and a 40% tariff on transshipment goods. In return, Vietnam will cut tariffs on all U.S. imports to 0%. It is still too early to judge whether this is a good deal for Vietnam, as we must wait for the outcomes of other regional countries’ negotiations. Also, clarification on the definition of “transshipment goods”, is needed. A 20% tariff will pressure Vietnam’s exporters, particularly electronics, textiles and footwear, whose demand is price sensitive. We therefore anticipate government support such as tax breaks and favorable credit packages for affected firms.
  Nevertheless, further negotiations may add some upside, especially when General Secretary To Lam is about to visit the U.S. soon. Our GDP forecast is under review, but from quick calculations taking the assumption that transshipments accounted for only 16% of Vietnam’s U.S. exports (study of Havard Business School), the impact on GDP should be unchanged from our previous projection.
• Provincial merger completed in less than a year. Vietnam’s new two-tier local governments started from July 2025 after consolidating from 63 to 34 provinces and cities. Ho Chi Minh City has now become a true mega city, accounting for 24% of national GDP and 15% of the population. With its expanded scale, upgraded infrastructure, and the new flexibility this reform enables, the city is well positioned to accelerate growth and evolve into a regional economic hub. Da Nang City, following its own merger, now incorporates Vietnam’s first free trade zone, strengthening its case to become a regional financial center.
• June inflation reached 3.6% y/y. Despite the softening impact of food and healthcare prices, faster building activity drove construction-material prices higher, offsetting that relief. Also, the mid-May 4.8% electricity price hike also showed its full effect in June. Looking ahead, we see headline CPI hovering near current levels through year-end. Eating-out prices may edge up as household businesses comply with stricter rules from 1 July, passing some costs to consumers. Yet this pressure should be tempered by softer food prices, supported by larger pork (+5.9% y/y) and poultry (+4.9% y/y) output, while subdued oil prices keep overall inflation in check.
• The manufacturing PMI lowered to 48.9 from 49.8 in May. The decline in new orders was the major reason for the decline given buyers in export markets remain cautious about the tariff outlook. Manufacturers also reduced the purchase of raw materials and accelerated the sale of inventory. Looking ahead, although front-loading was over, lower PMI is unlikely and gradual improvement is expected. The recent Vietnam–U.S. deal has reduced policy uncertainty, giving exporters and their clients more confidence to place orders and restocking inputs. Vietnam also gains a first-mover edge: countries that miss the agreement’s deadline could face higher duties, potentially steering extra demand its way. Accordingly, while export growth should cool from the front-loaded 14.4% recorded in H1/2025, a steep pullback is not expected.
• Resilient FDI inflow. FDI disbursements reached US $11.7 bn in the first half of the year, up 8.1% y/y. Industrial-park operators note that site visits are back to pre-tariff-announcement levels. Although details of the U.S. trade deal still need clarification, the agreement should bolster investor confidence, especially when President Trump calls many partners “tough negotiators.” Registered FDI totaled US $21.5 bn, a 32.6% rise y/y, indicating many projects are ready to proceed once the outlook firms up.
• Increasing fundings for public investment. Despite rising construction costs, major infrastructure projects remain on schedule. Year-to-date, the State Treasury has raised US $ 7.7 bn in government bonds, up 28.8% y/y. Combined with an US $ 8.8 bn budget surplus and a stronger regulatory framework, this fiscal headroom should allow the government to ramp up infrastructure spending, positioning it as a central engine of GDP growth.
• The VND slipped 0.3% against the dollar in June and 2.6% YTD, even though the dollar weakened against most other major and regional currencies. We view this as a short-term discrepancy. Over the past three and five years, the VND’s overall change is similar to some regional peers such as the Philippine peso and Indonesian rupiah, but with smaller ups and downs, showing the State Bank of Vietnam’s intension of keeping the exchange rate within a narrow band to protect trade and limit imported inflation. Looking ahead, we expect the VND to have a slight appreciation against the USD. Vietnam continues to post a trade surplus and attract steady foreign investment, and “errors and omissions” in the balance of payments fell to a 12-month low in Q1 2025. A recent rule that allows more firms to import gold legally should further cut smuggling, which is one of the major reasons for the “unknown” outflow in the last few years.

Vietnam’s Update – Stock Market

• The VN-Index extended its upward momentum in June, posting a total return of 3.1%, driven by sustained investor optimism surrounding the government’s proactive reform agenda. Recently approved measures—such as Resolution No. 68 (supporting private sector development), Resolution No. 76 (addressing provincial mergers and two-tier local governance), and their swift implementation—have reinforced confidence in the regulatory environment and Vietnam’s growth outlook. MSCI also acknowledged Vietnam’s recent initiatives to improve market accessibility, including the roadmap for English-language disclosures for public companies and progress on non-prefunding solutions for foreign investors. These developments bolstered sentiment, helped the average daily trading value remain steady at $805 million. However, foreign investors resumed moderate net selling, with outflows totaling $74 million for the month.
• Gains were broad-based across sectors. Consumer Staples led the rally (+9.9%), supported by government crackdowns on counterfeit goods, which redirected demand toward established brands and benefited formal market players. Consumer Discretionary rose 4.9%, lifted by the implementation of VAT invoice requirements and tax measures affecting informal household businesses, which are facing increased compliance pressure. The Materials sector climbed 5.3%, led by Hoa Phat Group (HPG, +5.8%), which saw strong domestic steel demand amid rising infrastructure investment. HPG reported a 24% y/y increase in sales volume for the first 5M/2025. Financials also contributed to the market’s gains (+2.4%), with Techcombank (TCB, +11.7%) outperforming on optimism around the upcoming IPO of its securities subsidiary, TCBS.
• On the downside, the Real Estate sector (-1.1%) experienced profit-taking after strong earlier gains (+46.8% YTD). Vingroup-related stocks, after significant rallies year to date, stayed flat in June. We keep our cautious view of the group, as mentioned in previous factsheets, given continued challenges in the automotive segment and elevated financial leverage.
• Looking ahead, the outlook for the Vietnam’s stock market remains positive. Vietnam’s advancing bid for FTSE Emerging Market status (with a review expected this September) and ongoing structural reforms are key catalysts. In addition, a weakening U.S. Dollar Index (DXY, -10.7% YTD) is expected enhance foreign capital flows into frontier and emerging markets, including Vietnam. The earnings outlook is solid with the top 100 stocks forecast to grow EPS by 13.5% in 2025 and trading at an appealing forward P/E of 12.1 times.

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