Vietnam January 2026 Outlook – Policy Signals and Corporate Earnings Drive Market

We would like to present you our monthly Macroeconomic & Stock Market Highlights for Vietnam alongside with the monthly performance update of the TIM Vietnam Actively Managed Certificate for January 2026.

Watch our video recap of key takeaways of the Vietnam Marcroeconomic and Stock market in January 2026

Vietnam’s Economy

• Please recall that Vietnam had a long public holiday for Lunar New Year in January 2025. In 2026, this holiday will be in February. Hence, the yearover-year comparison of some macro indicators such as inflation, retail sales, FDI disbursement, and trade activities are not like-for-like. By the end of February, we will make a fair comparison with the combined Jan-Feb measures.
• Vietnam’s 14th National Party Congress concluded with To Lam reappointed as General Secretary for a new five-year term, an outcome broadly in line with market expectations. Attention now shifts to the assignment of key State positions, which will be nominated by the Politburo and formally confirmed by the National Assembly of Vietnam in April 2026. Vietnam’s foreign policy under the new leadership remains anchored in strategic neutrality, maintaining a balanced approach toward major powers, which is proven by the relationship upgrade with the EU to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership last month. Overall, the Congress provides welcome clarity on Vietnam’s leadership trajectory and sets the stage for a pro-growth government with a
  greater focus on policy implementation.
• Inflation rose by 2.5% y/y, driven primarily by higher food and dining costs. The increase reflected the implementation of a new household business tax regime, stricter enforcement against non-hygiene-compliant producers, and seasonally elevated demand ahead of the Tet holiday. In addition, Tetrelated home repairs and renovations lifted demand for housing-related services, contributing to higher housing and construction material costs. These pressures were partly offset by easing transportation costs, as gasoline prices declined by 5.3%.
• Retail sales maintained solid momentum, expanding by 9.3% y/y, supported by strong international tourist inflows of 2.4 million arrivals, up 18.5% y/y. Asian visitors remained the main contributors, accounting for 73% of total arrivals. Notably, arrivals from Europe recorded a sharp increase of 59% y/y, reflecting improving connectivity and policy support. The surge was underpinned by relaxed visa policies and the launch of additional direct flights from Europe, including routes such as Hanoi–Milan and Ho Chi Minh City–Copenhagen, which have meaningfully enhanced access to Vietnam.
• FDI activity started the year on a positive note, with disbursed capital reaching USD 1.7 billion, up 11.3% y/y, driven largely by the manufacturing sector, which accounted for 82.5% of total disbursements. Vietnam continues to strengthen its position as an attractive destination for foreign investors. Notably, Kim Long Motor Hue JSC has partnered with China’s BYD Battery to develop a USD 135 million electric vehicle battery manufacturing project in central Vietnam. Beyond scale, Vietnam also has an opportunity to move up the value chain, as ASML, a leading global supplier to the semiconductor industry, is studying the expansion of its supply chain in Vietnam while exploring potential cooperation in training and R&D.
• State investment maintained strong momentum, increasing by 19.3% y/y, supported by the early-year launch of several large-scale infrastructure projects, including major bridge and metro developments. Construction activity has become visibly more active on the ground, a trend already reflected in higher sales volumes of steel, plastic pipes, and cement in 2025. Following the conclusion of the 14th National Party Congress, we expect project execution to accelerate further, with state capital disbursement gaining pace alongside faster implementation of approved developments.
• Vietnam’s PMI eased slightly to 52.5 in January from 53.0 last month but remained comfortably above the 50.0 no-change threshold, indicating a continued expansion in business conditions at the start of 2026. The sector has now recorded seven consecutive months of improvement. The latest survey also points to sustained momentum, with further increases in output, new orders, and employment. This positive trend is reflected in trade data, with exports and imports rising by 29.7% y/y and 49.2% y/y, respectively. While the trade balance recorded a USD 1.8 billion deficit, this is largely seasonal, reflecting stronger consumer demand and import activity ahead of the Tet holiday.
• The Vietnam Dong (VND) appreciated by 1.0% against the USD in January. Domestic interest rates began to normalize in late 2025 after a prolonged period of exceptionally low levels, with commercial banks raising deposit rates by approximately 100 bps over the past few months across tenors, bringing the 12-month deposit rate to around 6%. These higher domestic rates, combined with the continued weakening of the USD, provided support for the VND.
• The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has set a credit growth target of 15% for 2026, while instructing lenders to ensure that real estate lending does not expand faster than overall credit. We view this as a constructive signal, as it reflects a more prudent policy stance aimed at curbing speculative activity in the property market and redirecting capital toward productive uses, especially infrastructure and business investment. In parallel, authorities are accelerating capital market development to broaden funding channels and ease pressure on the banking system. This balanced approach is critical for strengthening Vietnam’s financial sector, particularly as the country works toward achieving investment-grade status over the coming years. An early milestone is Fitch Ratings’ recent upgrade of Vietnam’s long-term senior secured debt to investment grade, which, while not yet a sovereign credit rating upgrade, sends a constructive signal toward Vietnam’s medium-term path to sovereign investment-grade status.

Vietnam’s Stock Market

• The VNIndex started 2026 on a positive note, rising 4.0% in January, with market performance supported by both policy-related catalysts and a solid underlying earnings backdrop. Early in the month, the Politburo issued Resolution 79, reaffirming the “leading role” of the State economy. This triggered a market flashback to Resolution 68 on the private sector, which had previously driven sharp rallies in large private companies. As a result, investor attention shifted toward stocks with high State ownership. Given the relatively low free float of these names, capital inflows had a magnified impact on prices, lifting market sentiment and trading activity. Average daily trading value reached USD 1.5bn, up 36% compared with last year’s average. Foreign investors remained net sellers at USD 256mn, with nearly two-thirds of the outflows concentrated in Vingroup-related stocks.
• Importantly, corporate earnings in Q4/2025 were very robust, with net profit across the three exchanges increasing 31.3% y/y, bringing full-year 2025 profit growth to 29.7%. This reflects a broad-based improvement in underlying business conditions. Listed banks recorded profit growth of 19.5% y/y, driven by sustained credit expansion and stable asset quality. Meanwhile, companies in the construction materials sector such as Hoa Phat Group and Binh Minh Plastic reported sales volume growth of 30% and 20%, respectively, reinforcing the view that the economy and industrial activity remain on a strong footing.
• Financials, Energy, and Utilities were the main sectoral contributors. In Financials, BIDV (+40.4%) and Vietcombank (+24.3%) led the gains, supported by concrete corporate actions, as BIDV completed a private placement at a 29% discount to market price, while Vietcombank is reportedly exploring a capital-raising plan. In Energy and Utilities, PetroVietnam Gas (+63.8%) and Petrolimex (+69.1%) were key drivers, benefiting from the capital flow to State-owned companies. On the other hand, Vingroup-related stocks faced notable selling pressure from both foreign and domestic investors in January, with the correction extending into the first week of February.
• The VNIndex is currently trading at a 2026F P/E of 13.6x (Bloomberg), which is a moderate level in the context of strong earnings momentum. While headline valuation has been influenced by large-cap rallies, we see the more compelling opportunities in fundamentally solid companies with visible earnings growth. With 2026 forecast EPS growth for the top 100 stocks expected at 14.1%, the market outlook continues to be supported by fundamentals, reinforcing our preference for bottom-up and earnings-driven stock selection.

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Please download the January 2026 Factsheet for our TIM Vietnam Actively Managed Certificate.

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