Vietnam April 2026 Outlook – Economic Resilience Amid Middle East Tensions

We would like to present you our monthly Macroeconomic & Stock Market Highlights for Vietnam alongside with the monthly performance update of the TIM Vietnam Actively Managed Certificate for April 2026.

Watch our video recap of key takeaways of the Vietnam Marcroeconomic and Stock market in April 2026

Vietnam’s Economy

• Two months after the onset of the Middle East conflict, Vietnam’s economic activities remain largely stable. The most significant disruption is confined to the aviation sector, where local airlines have implemented a 20% flight reduction; however, other industries continue daily operations despite rising input costs. To safeguard domestic demand, the government is diversifying energy sources and leveraging a $17 billion budget surplus to subsidize petroleum prices. The Strait of Hormuz has yet to reopen, contrary to our base scenario stated in the latest quarterly outlook, which assumed a reopening by end-April. We are now shifting to our second scenario, which assumes the Strait reopens by end of June. In that scenario, 2026F GDP growth and CPI are projected to be 5.9% and 5.5% respectively. Given the fluid nature of geopolitical developments, we will provide further updates should the situation materially change.
• Outstanding pace of diplomacy from Vietnam’s new leaders. Within just weeks of taking office, Vietnam’s new government has accelerated its economic diplomacy through high-level engagements with China, Singapore, and South Korea, and Japan—nations that accounted for over 60% of the country’s FDI in 2025. Key priorities include developing high-speed rail networks, ensuring energy security, developing international financial center, and expanding cooperation in high-tech sectors like semiconductors and AI. This proactive coordination signals a strategic urgency to align resources with growth ambitions and anchor Vietnam’s next phase of industrial development.
• Inflation rose to 5.5%. Housing and construction materials (18% of the CPI) increased by 7.9%, on the back of a sharp 35.3% jump in domestic gas prices. Media also reported an increase in construction material prices (cement, steel, sand) amid higher input costs and strong demand for infrastructure projects. Prices of food & foodstuff (one-third of the CPI) rose by 5.2% mainly driven by eating-out services as higher input costs, particularly gas and raw materials, filtered into food service pricing. Transportation cost rose by 11.1% though slightly declined by 0.8% from last month thanks to Vietnam’s fuel tax reduction measures.
• Robust retail sales posted 11.1% growth. Vietnam welcomed 8.8 million international visitors in the first 4 months, up 14.6% y/y. The April number was stronger than expected, 2.1 million visitors, up 22.8% y/y. High airfare led to the deceleration of tourists from the EU, but the numbers of Asian visitors posted strong growth. For instance, Chinese visitors increased by 22.1% y/y while visitors from Southeast Asia nations rose by 33.8% y/y. Excluding price effects, retail sales still recorded real growth of 6.3%.
• FDI disbursements reached $7.4 billion, increased by 9.8% y/y. The manufacturing sector dominated, accounting for 82.7% of total disbursed capital, reflecting the continued deepening of Vietnam’s role as a global manufacturing hub. Samsung Electronics is reportedly planning a $4 billion chip packaging plant in Vietnam. With players like Amkor already expanding in Vietnam, Samsung’s move could further anchor the country as a regional back-end semiconductor hub.
• Public investment increased by 10.4% y/y, with infrastructure projects remaining the primary driver. To mark the Liberation Day anniversary, several major highway projects were completed, including the 37 kilometers of the Bien Hoa – Vung Tau expressway and 44 kilometers of the Quang Ngai – Hoai Nhon highway. Construction activities are increasingly visible across many cities, ranging from road expansions and drainage system upgrades to large-scale land leveling and site preparation.
• The March PMI declined to 50.5 from 51.2, signaling a tenth consecutive—though marginal—monthly improvement in business conditions. Manufacturers reported lower new orders as inflationary pressures on input and logistics costs began to weigh on demand. This cost pressure is reflected in the trade data for the first four months, where a 28.7% surge in imports outpaced a 19.7% rise in exports, flipping last year’s $3.6 billion surplus into a $7.1 billion deficit. Key drivers of this deficit include:
  • Energy: Net petroleum products imports climbed to $8.5 billion (up from $5.4 billion in 4M/2025).
  • Electronics: Components for mobile phones and laptops shifted from a $0.8 billion surplus in 4M/2025 to a $3 billion deficit.
• Looking ahead, while input cost pressures persist, the trade deficit may narrow as manufacturers reduce purchasing in response to slowing orders. Despite these trade imbalances, the USD/VND exchange rate has remained flat year-to-date, supported by a relatively unchanged US Dollar Index (DXY) and a more competitive bank deposit rate of the Vietnam Dong (VND).

Vietnam’s Stock Market

• Vietnam opened April with the confirmation to Secondary Emerging Market status by FTSE while listed companies reported solid earnings growth of 56% y/y in the first quarter. Nevertheless, only Vingroup-related stocks posted gains, driving up the VN-Index by 10.7% in April. Other stocks did not really move because investors concern on prolonged tension in the Middle East, reflected in the declining average trading volume to USD1.0bn (-22.6% m/m, +1.2% y/y). Foreign investors net sold USD512mn in April (USD1.7bn YTD), amid heightened global risk aversion. The outflow was highly concentrated in Vingroup-related stocks (~USD299mn) and FPT Corporation (~USD107mn), together accounting for around 80% of foreign net selling during the month.
• Sector performance was highly differentiated. Real Estate (+43.8%) was the dominant market driver, led by Vingroup-related stocks, particularly Vingroup (VIC, +58.5%), Vinhomes (VHM, +41.7%). VIC was the key contributor to the sector’s surge, supported by reported Q1/2026 net profit growth of 150% y/y to VND5.6tn. However, earnings quality remained weak, as the result was largely supported by unpredictable items, including a VND5tn donation from the Chairman through VinFast. Notably the free float of the stock is shrinking rapidly. At the April 2025 AGM, 240 shareholders represented 81.37% of the company. By August 2025 EGM, 152 shareholders held 92%. At last week’s 2026 AGM, 323 shareholders now represent 97.33% of a $62 billion company.
• Meanwhile, Financials (+1.9%) and Materials (+1.5%) posted a moderate gain. Banks provided the main support, helped by robust Q1 earnings growth of 12.4% and a partially cooled down of bank deposit rates. Hoa Phat Group (HPG) was the main driver for Materials sector thanks to strongerthan-expected Q1 results. Excluding the one-off gains, net profit of the core business grew by 51% y/y. On the other hand, Energy (-11.8%) was the major laggard, reflecting profit-taking after the March rally, as investors reassessed the impact of elevated oil prices on the businesses.
• Looking ahead, the underlying picture for Vietnam equities remains constructive. Listed companies delivered strong Q1 earnings growth, the FTSE Secondary EM upgrade is expected to attract $3 billion foreign capital, and the structural development of the stock market continues to progress. Yet market price action has been disconnected from fundamentals: stocks with genuinely solid earnings growth and improving business quality have barely moved, while Vingroup-related names, whose earnings rely heavily on unpredictable items, have surged. In principle, this dislocation creates opportunities to accumulate high-quality companies at attractive valuations, with the top 100 stocks (excluding Vingroup -related names) trading at a 2026F P/E of 11.5x. In practice, however, we have made this same observation repeatedly over the past year, and the gap between price and fundamentals has only widened. We think investors should therefore remain patient but realistic — the value of a company is ultimately determined by its earnings, not by unclear or unpredictable factors.

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Please download the April 2026 Factsheet for our TIM Vietnam Actively Managed Certificate.

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