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Techcom Securities (TCX VN) – Q1 2026 – Strong Earnings Growth and Capital Market Opportunities
Summary of Q1 2026 results and outlook of Techcom Securities (TCX VN)
- TCX posted 11.7% growth in total operating income (TOI). Margin lending income increased by 81.0% y/y thanks to higher average lending balance following the IPO last year and expansion of net interest margin. Brokerage segment recorded 17.5% growth given continuous acquisition of market share, though promotional expenses narrowed the margin of the segment. Investment banking income rose by 27.1% mainly due to higher issuance volume while charging fees stayed flat.
- On the other hand, distribution and treasury income declined as rapid increase in deposit rates reduced the relative attractiveness of corporate bonds and drove up secondary yields. Hence, TCX’s distribution spread declined from 1.6–1.9% in the last 2 years, to around 0.6% in the first quarter. Nevertheless, stable operating efficiency helped contain the impact, with net profit reaching VND1,148 billion, up 13.6% y/y.
- More balanced credit growth should support capital market development. Concerns on the outpace of credit growth over deposit growth and the 146% credit to GDP ratio are pushing the needs for alternative funding sources for corporates. This should benefit equities and corporate bonds, especially as corporate bond outstanding remains low at around 10% of GDP. Rising credit-rating adoption and recent rules allowing supplementary pension funds to invest in listed securities also indicate improving market readiness, positioning TCX well to capture these opportunities.
- We project 2026F net profit to increase by 9.4% y/y to VND 6,217 billion. Brokerage income should rise with higher trading value, while margin lending expands alongside market activity, supported by TCX’s strengthened capital base after its IPO. Investment banking income is expected to remain steady, with strong corporate bond issuance growth amid lower credit growth. We revise our forecast for distribution and treasury income following weaker-than-expected Q1 results, though we expect a gradual recovery in the coming quarters as deposit rates ease and higher-coupon bond issuances help restore investor demand. We also lower operating costs projections, reflecting improved operational efficiency, partly offsetting the impact on the bottom line.
- Looking ahead to 2027, we expect Vietnam’s continued capital market development to lift all income streams, supporting 21.4% net profit growth for TCX. Over the medium term, a potential sovereign credit rating upgrade from 2028 could unlock sizeable foreign inflows into Vietnam’s capital market, further strengthening TCX’s earnings outlook.
Interested in TCX? Click here to read more of our previous analysis on TCX’s quarterly earnings.
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